Code red

A red code is technically an emergency protocol indicating an imminent threat or an extreme risk situation. In the medical field, it is used to classify a patient who requires immediate attention without waiting time. In a fire, the red code warns us of the presence of fire or smoke inside the facilities. And in the political field, red code is what we saw yesterday in the Andalusian elections. From smallest to largest: the plurinational Adelante Andalucía (AA), growing (8); a Por Andalucía (5) of a great politician like Antonio Maíllo, trying to maintain his path after being surpassed on his left; a Vox that has made priority in the campaign (15); an Andalusian PSOE (28), resisting the decline, and a boosted, energetic, and victorious Andalusian PP, but without an absolute majority (53). The logic of the right-wing caucuses  has prevailed. Thus, the red security alert is triggered, which must mobilize and coordinate all forces ahead of the general elections after the electoral silence that begins today until July 2027, except for the municipal elections in May. What happened yesterday in Andalusia stays in Andalusia.

Read more Sánchez takes the bitterest defeat as Montero breaks through the PSOE floor

In the case of the PSOE, the Andalusian red code did not start yesterday, but in 2018. First was the motion of no confidence won by Pedro Sánchez, then came the Andalusian elections that same year which resulted in the investiture of Juanma Moreno and, finally, the general elections of April 2019, the first won by the PSOE in 11 years, and seven years have passed since they last won. In fifteen days, it will be eight years since the motion of no confidence, that extraordinary act of political momentum that continues to bring the future into the present. Pedro Sánchez became Prime Minister by winning a motion of no confidence and not an investiture debate. That unprecedented path crystallized a plurinational, cross-sectional, and peripheral majority in Congress that operates to this day. The fact that Sánchez has surpassed Mariano Rajoy , José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero , and José María Aznar in days leading the government in this current legislature is 50% the result of the executive power’s work and 50% of that majority residing in the legislature.

After that 2018 motion of no confidence, the 2018 Andalusian elections came. And the fact: even at the worst moment for the PP, the sum of the three right-wing parties allowed Moreno’s investiture as the first right-wing president of the Junta. The Andalusian PSOE did not know how to read the game then. In fact, the first time it anticipated Andalusian elections in 2015 – a mistake – it consolidated Podemos and Cs. In 2018 – a double mistake – it consolidated Vox and lost the Junta. The nationality of the south has its charm, and Susana Díaz should have called elections with the general ones, as Manuel Chaves did, to control participation and mobilization as Sánchez asked her in September 2018 in a meeting at Moncloa that I recount in The Manual . That Andalusian PSOE was a victim of all those who, believing they were against Sánchez, were fighting against the political momentum that forged the motion of no confidence. Since then, they have been in red code. The founding moment. In that 2018, the Andalusian right-wing parties summed 50% of the votes. Yesterday, as in 2022, ten points more.

Díaz’s 2018 mistake gave way, therefore, to Moreno’s current stability until today. And yet, Sánchez still remains in the command post, to whom that electoral anticipation was also directed and consolidated. This red code without an absolute majority in Andalusia marks the pace for the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo in the upcoming general elections. Also in the Andalusian elections, an agreement between PP and Vox must be reached, as in the rest of the caucuses . However, that lack of competitiveness of the Andalusian PSOE for almost eight years has nothing to do with María Jesús Montero , who precisely left Andalusia that year. What is missing, yes, is a winning car since 2018.

Read more The PP wins in Andalusia, but falls short of an absolute majority and Moreno will have to negotiate for his investiture

In 2027, Sánchez must go out to compete for victory as always, even though in these Andalusian elections the PSOE has hit rock bottom. In general elections there is always a variable change: the dual vote. It will not be like 2023. The red code on the left forces winning at the polls in votes, seats, and revitalizing its partners, recovering the idea of Spain as a plurinational state of the south of the European Union. New Ferrari engine.