At the bar of the restaurant La Isla, in Seville, some gentlemen gathered at noon. Good people who most likely – one can always be surprised – had the characteristic phenotype of the Popular Party voter. By listening closely and while waiting for the diner, one could get an idea of the program for this weekend. Most would go to the elegant and unparalleled Jerez Horse Fair.
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No one should be scared, the fair ends on the 16th, so between packing up and having a few last olorosos, there will be time for the family to get to the polling station the next day, Sunday, and vote. Unless, despite the scattered clouds expected that day, instead of going inland they head to the coast or perhaps to see the May Crosses, widely celebrated in Andalusia.
That is the great fear: that voters stay at home. The fear of the PP, the PSOE, and everyone in general. “Come on, come on, come oooon!” Maria Jesús Montero always shouts at the end of her rallies with her fists raised.
Political analysts predict that PP voters will show up. They are loyal infantry. But even so, the PP is truly terrified that the results are taken for granted as the president of the Madrid community, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, did yesterday, who predicted “an overwhelming victory” for Juanma Moreno. No man, no, “the ballot boxes are empty” insists the candidate seeking to renew the presidency of the Andalusian Junta for the third time again and again.
The socialists are prey to the same panic or worse. And they have plenty of reasons for it. The decline of socialism in Andalusia runs directly parallel to the increase in abstention. The lower the turnout, according to the historical series, the worse it has gone for them. In 2022, when they had their worst result, abstention reached 43%. In their good years, abstention was below 25%, although it is true that these usually coincided with other elections.
For the PSOE it is desperate, because they know the votes are there, as shown in the general elections, when the socialists, so far, have always obtained better results. But in these regional elections… the forecasts are not at all encouraging.
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This campaign is dragging on for everyone. For some because the lack of momentum leads to collapse and for others because the momentum is such that they might miss the polling station altogether.
The progressive revolt predicted by Montero and Maíllo, each with their own discourse, does not appear anywhere, despite issues like breast cancer screenings giving them increasingly convincing arguments.
In Monday’s debate, Moreno denied that the Junta was aware that women had died due to delays in repeating suspicious tests. On Wednesday, the lawyer of the Amama association, which brings together those affected, assured that at least the Junta is aware of six deaths because it has acknowledged receipt of the compensation claims already presented for these victims. Yesterday Moreno again denied having knowledge of these deaths.
The PP candidate even defended himself by dusting off the health archive where he found a 2011 ruling, when Montero was health minister, that condemned the health services for a poorly conducted screening.
As said, the campaign is dragging on for everyone. It ends today. Moreno will close in Málaga. The rest of the parties will do so in the capital, Seville.
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