The seven magnificent –Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla– maintain their strength with a combined profit of 557 billion dollars –or 480 billion euros– in the first half, once Nvidia’s accounts are known. It is more than triple (258%) compared to the same period in 2021, before ChatGPT and the AI fever emerged, which have benefited them and at the same time put them in doubt, without disrupting their stability for now. A colossal figure despite covering only six months. Behind the strong rise is mainly Nvidia, which has gone from being just another listed company to a monster: it earns 28 times more, with more than 100 billion dollars until June.
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In this five-year period there have been several impulses. It is the post-COVID era, which has made online shopping and teleworking flourish, pushing companies to invest in the cloud and servers, reviews Xavier Brun, equity director at Trea AM. “This benefits Microsoft or Amazon,” he details, focused on data centers. The former has doubled its profit, to about 68 billion, and the latter has multiplied it by six. “Their business has accelerated, it is not so much because of AI itself, which is only a part of their activity,” he continues. Meta has also benefited from advertising and usage, earning 42 billion, a little more than double, and especially Alphabet, the owner of Google, which quintuples to 175 billion. Tesla is at the other end: it has barely moved due to strong competition and its recent high spending.
All notably improve results except Tesla and Apple, which now raises the bet on AI
A separate paragraph for Nvidia, “the greatest success story of the AI investment cycle,” values Jean-Paul van Oudheusden, market analyst at eToro. Also focused on data centers, “what makes its position particularly strong is that it no longer only sells processors to train AI models, but provides a broader part of the AI infrastructure: CPU, networks, software and technology around memories. The breadth of demand is also important,” beyond the big firms, he continues. “Even tech companies developing their own chips still buy from Nvidia,” says the analyst. Being a player in several layers of the chain “explains why it has accelerated its performance so much,” he concludes. And it has not peaked: it estimates a 70% sales growth next year.
Brun points out that the earnings semester has been good, without the risks or fears hovering over AI being reflected in the numbers. He explains that their strength lies in being leaders thanks to “spectacular” entry barriers. For example, it is impossible to replicate a Meta that holds 3 billion users, or a Google that everyone uses. AI can be both a favorable factor due to demand and negative due to the risk it poses to their businesses, such as the future of Microsoft software or Google searches, which threatened to disappear. But they remain, and money keeps coming in.
Luis Garvía, director of the master’s in financial risks at Comillas Icade, values Apple. Its results grow 30% compared to 2021, more moderate, but it wants to join the party. “It has just launched a computer to run AI locally, outside a data center, on your desk. It wants to fight in homes,” he comments. He also focuses on Alphabet, “one of the big winners because it has the entire value chain, software and models,” he says.
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All notably improve results except Tesla and Apple, which now raises the bet on AI
The barriers have allowed them to withstand the investment impact to be key in the race for data centers and artificial intelligence, although some eyebrows are already raised. Because until now companies used their cash to finance investment. Brun details that this 2026 investment in capital will be around 800 billion, like all the cash flow generated by the big techs, including Oracle. Every extra euro they invest will be with external financing, going to banks or issuing debt. Thus, they install the bill on their balance sheets. With an investment outlook of 1.1 trillion in 2027 and 1.3 trillion in 2028, “the capacity for external financing has a limit, these are not sustainable figures,” he warns.
At eToro they estimate that the big techs will raise about 285 billion in the bond market this year. If bank financing slows down or debt issuance stops, capital increases will have to be resorted to. “In this last stage there are already AI companies outside the seven magnificent,” like an OpenAI or an Anthropic, Brun concludes. “All the big AI companies are burning immense amounts of money and losing money wildly. Some like Alphabet wait for them to crash to buy them,” comments Miguel Ángel Domínguez, president of the blockchain association Alastria. Another concern is the circularity of debt, with companies financing their own clients, with Nvidia often at the center.
“The sustainability of spending will not be determined by how many bonds are issued or how much capital is raised, but whether enough income or productivity gain is generated to justify the hundreds of millions invested,” believes Van Oudheusden. “So far the evidence points to strong underlying demand rather than a lack of customers.” The music keeps playing. But it remains to be seen if debt financing grows and if “complex financing agreements” spread, because the consequences “could be greater if returns fall short.” The big ones have the capacity to stop investment, because their main business remains. The rest may be left behind.
Entry opportunities
Despite the strength of the accounts, prices have suffered fluctuations in recent months. From Trea AM they point out that profits grow at double digits, with low multiples. This makes investors see an entry opportunity. Meta falls 11% so far this year and has lost almost a quarter of its value since last year’s highs. Of the group of seven big techs, Tesla is the most punished, with a 20% annual decline, amid doubts about greater competition and its strong investments in artificial intelligence, to be a company of autonomous driving and robots, where Garvía believes China has the advantage.
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